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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

Trades-Own-Strategy Certification

This system has earned Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification. This means that the manager of this system trades his own strategy in a real-life, funded brokerage account.

Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification Details
Certification process started 11/10/2021
Most recent certification approved 11/10/21 12:59 ET
Trades at broker Dorman Trading - Rithmic
Scaling percentage used 100%
# trading signals issued by system since certification 1,520
# trading signals executed in manager's Dorman Trading - Rithmic account 1,520
Percent signals followed since 11/10/2021 100%
This information was last updated 9/29/22 9:29 ET

Warning: System trading results are still hypothetical.

Even though the system developer is currently trading his own system in a real-life brokerage account, the trading results presented on this Web site must still be regarded as purely hypothetical results. This is because (among other reasons) the system developer may not have traded all signals, particularly those that occurred before 11/10/2021, and the system developer's results may not match the system results presented here. In addition, not all subscribers have received the same trades or prices as the system manager has. For these reasons, and others, it is extremely important you remember the following:

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

You may be interested to learn more technical details about how Collective2 calculates the hypothetical results you see on this web site.

MicroAI Equity Indexes
(137736667)

Created by: CMBCapital CMBCapital
Started: 10/2021
Futures
Last trade: Yesterday
Trading style: Futures Momentum

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $39.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Futures
Momentum
Category: Equity

Momentum

Aims to capitalize on the continuance of existing trends in the market. Trader takes a long position in an asset in an upward trend, and short-sells a security that has been in a downward trend. While similar to Trend-following, tends to be more forward-looking (predicting oncoming trend), while Momentum is more backward-looking (observing already-established price direction).
7.1%
Cumul. Return

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated

= (Ending_equity - Starting_equity) / Starting_equity

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(14.3%)
Max Drawdown
636
Num Trades
29.6%
Win Trades
1.1 : 1
Profit Factor
50.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2021                                                               (0.2%)+0.5%+11.1%+11.4%
2022+3.6%+3.0%(0.2%)+4.0%(2.3%)(9.5%)+1.9%(1.3%)(2.3%)                  (3.8%)

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 4 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 1,519 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
9/28/22 11:21 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11455.00 9/28 11:33 11410.40 n/a ($90)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/27/22 11:14 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 11449.70 9/27 12:08 11314.65 0%
Trade id #141944470
Max drawdown($0)
Time9/27/22 11:18
Quant open1
Worst price11450.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
$269
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/27/22 11:10 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11495.00 9/27 11:14 11449.60 0.27%
Trade id #141944323
Max drawdown($96)
Time9/27/22 11:14
Quant open1
Worst price11446.80
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
($92)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/27/22 10:45 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11498.40 9/27 11:05 11452.65 0.28%
Trade id #141943913
Max drawdown($99)
Time9/27/22 11:05
Quant open1
Worst price11448.80
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
($93)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/26/22 13:59 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 11294.40 9/26 14:02 11341.40 0.29%
Trade id #141934029
Max drawdown($102)
Time9/26/22 14:02
Quant open1
Worst price11345.80
Drawdown as % of equity-0.29%
($95)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/26/22 12:58 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11384.50 9/26 13:06 11338.10 0.29%
Trade id #141933175
Max drawdown($102)
Time9/26/22 13:06
Quant open1
Worst price11333.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.29%
($94)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/26/22 10:48 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 11454.00 9/26 12:32 11317.20 0.1%
Trade id #141929830
Max drawdown($37)
Time9/26/22 11:00
Quant open1
Worst price11472.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.10%
$273
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/26/22 10:08 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 11484.60 9/26 10:09 11478.20 n/a $12
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/23/22 15:42 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11357.00 9/23 16:45 11385.85 0.17%
Trade id #141912773
Max drawdown($61)
Time9/23/22 15:50
Quant open1
Worst price11326.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.17%
$57
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/23/22 12:07 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 11331.20 9/23 15:30 11331.50 0.23%
Trade id #141909569
Max drawdown($82)
Time9/23/22 13:03
Quant open1
Worst price11372.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.23%
($2)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/23/22 11:24 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11425.50 9/23 11:29 11378.75 0.3%
Trade id #141908102
Max drawdown($104)
Time9/23/22 11:29
Quant open1
Worst price11373.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.30%
($95)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/22/22 13:51 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11589.80 9/22 14:20 11543.65 0.27%
Trade id #141896784
Max drawdown($96)
Time9/22/22 14:20
Quant open1
Worst price11541.80
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
($93)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/22/22 12:24 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11594.85 9/22 13:16 11545.00 0.28%
Trade id #141895522
Max drawdown($99)
Time9/22/22 13:16
Quant open1
Worst price11541.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
($101)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/22/22 10:58 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 11546.77 9/22 12:24 11592.85 0.32%
Trade id #141893467
Max drawdown($115)
Time9/22/22 12:24
Quant open1
Worst price11604.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.32%
($93)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/21/22 14:08 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11864.05 9/21 14:14 11807.17 0.33%
Trade id #141880366
Max drawdown($118)
Time9/21/22 14:14
Quant open1
Worst price11795.80
Drawdown as % of equity-0.33%
($115)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/21/22 14:00 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 11911.60 9/21 14:07 11798.00 n/a $226
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/21/22 12:31 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11993.48 9/21 14:00 11937.90 0.68%
Trade id #141878609
Max drawdown($242)
Time9/21/22 14:00
Quant open1
Worst price11873.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.68%
($112)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/20/22 15:36 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11952.70 9/20 16:45 11939.20 0.23%
Trade id #141868824
Max drawdown($82)
Time9/20/22 15:58
Quant open1
Worst price11911.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.23%
($28)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/20/22 13:05 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 11925.48 9/20 15:01 11924.42 0.07%
Trade id #141867023
Max drawdown($25)
Time9/20/22 13:09
Quant open1
Worst price11937.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
$1
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/20/22 11:07 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11973.50 9/20 13:05 11925.00 0.27%
Trade id #141864571
Max drawdown($98)
Time9/20/22 13:05
Quant open1
Worst price11924.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
($98)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/19/22 12:55 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11943.76 9/19 16:01 12041.89 0.26%
Trade id #141853706
Max drawdown($92)
Time9/19/22 14:23
Quant open1
Worst price11897.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.26%
$195
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/19/22 11:37 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 11873.29 9/19 12:36 11919.19 0.29%
Trade id #141851407
Max drawdown($102)
Time9/19/22 12:36
Quant open1
Worst price11924.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.29%
($93)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/19/22 10:36 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11944.17 9/19 11:31 11894.71 0.31%
Trade id #141850078
Max drawdown($111)
Time9/19/22 11:31
Quant open1
Worst price11888.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.31%
($100)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/16/22 14:55 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11903.12 9/16 16:45 11934.00 0.19%
Trade id #141835297
Max drawdown($66)
Time9/16/22 15:31
Quant open1
Worst price11870.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.19%
$61
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/16/22 10:49 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 11833.65 9/16 14:35 11880.40 0.27%
Trade id #141830590
Max drawdown($97)
Time9/16/22 14:35
Quant open1
Worst price11882.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
($95)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/16/22 10:35 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 11904.83 9/16 10:45 11856.75 0.28%
Trade id #141830171
Max drawdown($98)
Time9/16/22 10:45
Quant open1
Worst price11855.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
($97)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/15/22 14:50 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 1 12016.33 9/15 16:45 11974.50 0.11%
Trade id #141820964
Max drawdown($40)
Time9/15/22 16:01
Quant open1
Worst price12036.80
Drawdown as % of equity-0.11%
$83
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/15/22 12:51 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 12063.20 9/15 14:50 12015.10 0.27%
Trade id #141819170
Max drawdown($96)
Time9/15/22 14:50
Quant open1
Worst price12015.00
Drawdown as % of equity-0.27%
($97)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/15/22 11:31 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 LONG 1 12064.05 9/15 11:56 12015.20 0.28%
Trade id #141817253
Max drawdown($99)
Time9/15/22 11:56
Quant open1
Worst price12014.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.28%
($99)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.94
9/14/22 15:30 @MNQZ2 MICRO E-MINI NASDAQ 100 SHORT 3 12105.75 9/14 15:50 12127.24 0.44%
Trade id #141804180
Max drawdown($157)
Time9/14/22 15:50
Quant open1
Worst price12184.50
Drawdown as % of equity-0.44%
($132)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.82

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    10/9/2021
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $35,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    355.16
  • Age
    12 months ago
  • What it trades
    Futures
  • # Trades
    636
  • # Profitable
    188
  • % Profitable
    29.60%
  • Avg trade duration
    3.7 hours
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    14.29%
  • drawdown period
    May 02, 2022 - Sept 23, 2022
  • Cumul. Return
    7.1%
  • Avg win
    $246.85
  • Avg loss
    $94.89
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $36,901
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $36,901
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    1.09:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    0.48
  • Sortino Ratio
    0.73
  • Calmar Ratio
    1.063
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    22.43%
  • Correlation to SP500
    -0.00470
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    -15.31%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    7.2%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    16.00%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    1.00%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.42%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.071%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    12.1%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    8.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    n/a
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    608
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    757
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    335
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    709
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    Yes
  • TOS percent
    100%
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $95
  • Avg Win
    $247
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $42,511.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    12
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $46,408.000
  • # Winners
    188
  • Num Months Winners
    6
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    72422
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    448
  • % Winners
    29.6%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    220.18
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    3.67
  • Avg Trade Length
    0.2 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    1
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.04
  • Daily leverage (max)
    3.09
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.02
  • Beta
    -0.00
  • Treynor Index
    -7.31
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.00
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -1.02
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.00
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    -7.554
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.00
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.214
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.096
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    -0.132
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.10711
  • SD
    0.13517
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.79244
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.73122
  • df
    10.00000
  • t
    0.75871
  • p
    0.23277
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.30209
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.84908
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.34082
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.80327
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.36151
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.96478
  • Upside part of mean
    0.23324
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.12613
  • Upside SD
    0.10666
  • Downside SD
    0.07867
  • N nonnegative terms
    7.00000
  • N negative terms
    4.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    11.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.17273
  • Mean of criterion
    0.10711
  • SD of predictor
    0.18961
  • SD of criterion
    0.13517
  • Covariance
    0.00546
  • r
    0.21315
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.15195
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.13336
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01938
  • DF error
    9.00000
  • t(b)
    0.65449
  • p(b)
    0.26458
  • t(a)
    0.88421
  • p(a)
    0.19979
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.37324
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.67714
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.20783
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.47454
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.70491
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.13336
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.09820
  • SD
    0.13452
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.73000
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.67361
  • df
    10.00000
  • t
    0.69892
  • p
    0.25027
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.35885
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.78376
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.39469
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.74190
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.21159
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    2.80381
  • Upside part of mean
    0.22725
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.12905
  • Upside SD
    0.10337
  • Downside SD
    0.08105
  • N nonnegative terms
    7.00000
  • N negative terms
    4.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    11.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.19030
  • Mean of criterion
    0.09820
  • SD of predictor
    0.19173
  • SD of criterion
    0.13452
  • Covariance
    0.00564
  • r
    0.21884
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.15354
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.12742
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01914
  • DF error
    9.00000
  • t(b)
    0.67284
  • p(b)
    0.25897
  • t(a)
    0.84442
  • p(a)
    0.21016
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.36268
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.66977
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.21393
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.46877
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.63956
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.12742
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.05417
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.06930
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01945
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04108
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    11.00000
  • Minimum
    0.93272
  • Quartile 1
    0.99151
  • Median
    1.01329
  • Quartile 3
    1.02917
  • Maximum
    1.07877
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.96731
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00252
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.02623
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.05394
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03766
  • Number outliers low
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.09091
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.93272
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -1.55253
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02717
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02892
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.76479
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.07062
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.35482
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    2.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00874
  • Quartile 1
    0.02739
  • Median
    0.04604
  • Quartile 3
    0.06469
  • Maximum
    0.08334
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00874
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.08334
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03730
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.13369
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.13440
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.61273
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    1.61273
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    1.93955
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.09683
  • SD
    0.10255
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.94422
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.94132
  • df
    244.00000
  • t
    0.91307
  • p
    0.18105
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.08524
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.97181
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.08722
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.96986
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.49033
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    9.82793
  • Upside part of mean
    0.63854
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.54171
  • Upside SD
    0.07930
  • Downside SD
    0.06497
  • N nonnegative terms
    110.00000
  • N negative terms
    135.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    245.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.17321
  • Mean of criterion
    0.09683
  • SD of predictor
    0.22351
  • SD of criterion
    0.10255
  • Covariance
    -0.00027
  • r
    -0.01157
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00531
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.09600
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01056
  • DF error
    243.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.18042
  • p(b)
    0.57151
  • t(a)
    0.90157
  • p(a)
    0.18409
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.06328
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.05266
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.11364
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.30546
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -18.23500
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.09591
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.09158
  • SD
    0.10240
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.89432
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.89157
  • df
    244.00000
  • t
    0.86482
  • p
    0.19399
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.13495
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    2.92180
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.13679
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    2.91994
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    1.40168
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    9.72480
  • Upside part of mean
    0.63536
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.54378
  • Upside SD
    0.07878
  • Downside SD
    0.06533
  • N nonnegative terms
    110.00000
  • N negative terms
    135.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    245.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.19824
  • Mean of criterion
    0.09158
  • SD of predictor
    0.22420
  • SD of criterion
    0.10240
  • Covariance
    -0.00028
  • r
    -0.01220
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00557
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.09047
  • Mean Square Error
    0.01053
  • DF error
    243.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.19027
  • p(b)
    0.57537
  • t(a)
    0.85142
  • p(a)
    0.19769
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.06328
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.05213
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.11883
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.29978
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -16.42880
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.09047
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01001
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01262
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00508
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00953
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    245.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98108
  • Quartile 1
    0.99728
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00308
  • Maximum
    1.02312
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99332
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99871
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00135
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00864
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00580
  • Number outliers low
    8.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.03265
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98467
  • Number of outliers high
    14.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.05714
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01560
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.03559
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00620
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00852
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.01877
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00686
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00933
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    14.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00183
  • Quartile 1
    0.00435
  • Median
    0.00802
  • Quartile 3
    0.02234
  • Maximum
    0.11943
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00315
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00684
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.01543
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.05255
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01799
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.07143
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.11943
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.49204
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.06149
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.13539
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    1.74553
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.09835
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.12641
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.12692
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    1.06265
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    2.41503
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    10.05950
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.17705
  • SD
    0.08828
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -2.00549
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -1.99390
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -1.41809
  • p
    0.56171
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -4.78424
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.78077
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -4.77628
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.78848
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -2.68348
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.50960
  • Upside part of mean
    0.42948
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.60652
  • Upside SD
    0.05917
  • Downside SD
    0.06598
  • N nonnegative terms
    53.00000
  • N negative terms
    78.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.42301
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.17705
  • SD of predictor
    0.24847
  • SD of criterion
    0.08828
  • Covariance
    -0.00191
  • r
    -0.08706
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.03093
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.19013
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00779
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.99261
  • p(b)
    0.55536
  • t(a)
    -1.51440
  • p(a)
    0.58389
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.09259
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.03072
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.43853
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05827
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    5.72362
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.19013
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.18095
  • SD
    0.08825
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -2.05053
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -2.03868
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -1.44994
  • p
    0.56308
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -4.82964
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.73634
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -4.82154
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.74418
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -2.72898
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    6.45015
  • Upside part of mean
    0.42770
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.60865
  • Upside SD
    0.05879
  • Downside SD
    0.06631
  • N nonnegative terms
    53.00000
  • N negative terms
    78.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    -0.45415
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.18095
  • SD of predictor
    0.24961
  • SD of criterion
    0.08825
  • Covariance
    -0.00194
  • r
    -0.08821
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.03118
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.19512
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00779
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.00577
  • p(b)
    0.55608
  • t(a)
    -1.55364
  • p(a)
    0.58601
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.01000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.09253
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.03016
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.44359
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.05336
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    5.80264
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.19512
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00961
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01186
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00596
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.01039
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    0.98260
  • Quartile 1
    0.99675
  • Median
    0.99914
  • Quartile 3
    1.00242
  • Maximum
    1.01804
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.99310
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99806
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00078
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00582
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00567
  • Number outliers low
    5.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.03817
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.98583
  • Number of outliers high
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.03053
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.01673
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -0.03167
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00672
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00879
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.09803
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00661
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00910
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    5.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00001
  • Quartile 1
    0.00183
  • Median
    0.00382
  • Quartile 3
    0.01620
  • Maximum
    0.11943
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00092
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00382
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.01620
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.11943
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.01437
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.20000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.11943
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.75%
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -318403000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    144
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.14734
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.14191
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -1.18820
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -1.18820
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -11.96200

Strategy Description


Strat is momentum primarily with a smaller percentage of mean reversion entries. There are two components, one looking at a 24-hour time frame and the other looking at intra-day hours only. An AI decides if it thinks the momentum will continue or will exhaust and reverse and enter based on the direction of momentum. MNQ is particularly 'trendy' compared to ES/MES so successful predictions pay a higher risk/reward. Micros allow for precise scaling.

The market needs a correction but unprecedented inflows, QE, and the options market have changed how corrections happen and people much smarter than I are free to predict what that means about future direction. As long as the market moves one way or another, the strategy will pay.

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2021-10-09
Suggested Minimum Capital
$35,000
# Trades
636
# Profitable
188
% Profitable
29.6%
Correlation S&P500
-0.005
Sharpe Ratio
0.48
Sortino Ratio
0.73
Beta
-0.00
Alpha
0.02
Leverage
1.04 Average
3.09 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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subscribed on started simulation #SUBSCRIBEDDATE#

Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.