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Fxsignal4U

Forex · Started Aug 2010

hypothetical · Annual Return (Compounded)
1.3%
Max Drawdown
39.4%
Trades
121
Win Trades
72.7%
Profit Factor
1.20
Win Months
5.2%

About this strategy

Technical analysis, trendtrading. trades four hours charts only. Our strategy is based on technical analysis solely following the trends. We keep an eye on over-sold and over-bought levels. We extend the size of our position continuously - by opening new positions - in direction of the trend. We notify our clients about next update in signal email. We send e-mail also:
•If there are trades to enter
•If TP 1 is reached and we are moving SL to BE
•If we have to close positions unexpectedly.
We send 4-8 Signals every week, Stop-Loss: 80-250 Pips, TakeProfit Focus: 80-350 Pips.
Running trades are managed.
Do not risk more than 2 per cent of your capital in one position.
Maximum 10 per cent of your capital should be at risk at a time.
If you are uncertain about the calculation of position size, do not hesitate to ask us!

Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes fees/commissions)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2010-0.23.014.3-6.828.941.2
2011-7.013.613.17.52.30.42.1-6.4-3.4-21.35.4-11.7-10.7
2012-2.5-0.1-0.10.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-2.8
20130.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20140.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0-0.00.00.00.0-0.0
20150.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20160.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20170.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20180.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20190.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20200.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20210.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20220.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20230.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20240.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20250.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0
20260.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0

Statistics

Overview

Strategy began8/24/2010
Suggested Minimum Capital$100,000
Age196 months
What it tradesForex
# Trades121
# Profitable88
% Profitable72.7%
Avg trade duration5.0 days
Max peak-to-valley drawdown39.4%
drawdown periodAug 09, 2011 - Dec 13, 2011
Annual Return (Compounded)1.3%
Avg win$2,302
Avg loss$5,239

Ratios

W:L ratio1.17
Sharpe Ratio-0.01
Sortino Ratio-0.01
Calmar Ratio-0.15

CORRELATION STATISTICS

Correlation to SP500-0.01
Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life638.7%
Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)-614.1%

Return Statistics

Ann Return (w trading costs)1.3%
Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)0.0%
Return Pcnt Since TOS Status0.0%
Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)1.6%

Slump

Current Slump as Pcnt Equity58.2%
Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life0.9%

Instruments

Percent Trades Forex1.0%
Percent Trades Futures0.0%
Percent Trades Options0.0%
Percent Trades Stocks0.0%

Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)

Chance of 10% account loss100.0%
Chance of 20% account loss100.0%
Chance of 30% account loss100.0%
Chance of 40% account loss0.0%
Chance of 50% account loss0.0%
Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%
Chance of 100% account loss (Monte Carlo)0.0%

Automation

Percentage Signals Automated0.0%

Popularity

Popularity (Today)0
Popularity (Last 6 weeks)0
Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)0

Trading Style

Any stock shorts? 0/10

Trades-Own-System Certification

Trades Own System?0
TOS percent0.0%

Win / Loss

Avg Loss$5,239
Avg Win$2,302
# Winners88
Sum Trade PL (losers)$172,884
Sum Trade PL (winners)$202,570
Num Months Winners10
# Losers33
% Winners72.7%

Dividends

Dividends Received in Model Acct0

Age

Num Months filled monthly returns table194

Frequency

Avg Position Time (mins)7144.97
Avg Position Time (hrs)119.08
Avg Trade Length5
Last Trade Ago5371

Regression

Alpha0
Beta0
Treynor Index0.04

Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)

MAE:Equity, average, all trades0.02
MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat0.07
MAE:Equity, average, losing trades0.04
MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
MAE:Equity, average, winning trades0.02
MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades-74.01
MAE:PL (avg, all trades)6.20
MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)—
MAE:PL - Losing Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats26.87
MAE:PL - Winning Trades - this strat Percentile of All Strats95.71
MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)—
MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy—
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades1.06
Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades-1.02
Hold-and-Hope Ratio-0.01

RATIO STATISTICS

Mean-0.05
SD0.27
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.19
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.18
df51
t-0.39
p0.65
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.76
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.76
Sortino ratio-0.22
Upside Potential Ratio0.76
Upside part of mean0.17
Downside part of mean-0.22
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.22
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms44
N of observations52
Mean of predictor0.40
Mean of criterion-0.05
SD of predictor0.32
SD of criterion0.27
Covariance0.01
r0.13
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.11
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.10
Mean Square Error0.07
DF error50
t(b)0.94
p(b)0.18
t(a)-0.69
p(a)0.75
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.35
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.37
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.18
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.45
Jensen alpha (a)-0.10
Mean-0.09
SD0.31
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.30
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.29
df51
t-0.62
p0.73
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.24
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.65
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.24
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.65
Sortino ratio-0.33
Upside Potential Ratio0.57
Upside part of mean0.16
Downside part of mean-0.25
Upside SD0.14
Downside SD0.28
N nonnegative terms8
N negative terms44
N of observations52
Mean of predictor0.35
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.31
SD of criterion0.31
Covariance0.02
r0.18
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.18
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.16
Mean Square Error0.10
DF error50
t(b)1.29
p(b)0.10
t(a)-1.00
p(a)0.84
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta-0.10
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.47
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.47
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.16
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.51
Jensen alpha (a)-0.16
VaR(95%)0.14
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.18
VaR(95%)0.06
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.12
Mean0.01
SD0.45
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0.03
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0.03
df1149
t0.06
p0.50
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-0.91
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.97
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-0.91
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.97
Sortino ratio0.04
Upside Potential Ratio2.61
Upside part of mean0.81
Downside part of mean-0.79
Upside SD0.33
Downside SD0.31
N nonnegative terms118
N negative terms1032
N of observations1150
Mean of predictor0.43
Mean of criterion0.01
SD of predictor0.33
SD of criterion0.45
Covariance0.05
r0.32
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.44
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.17
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error1148
t(b)11.50
p(b)0.34
t(a)-0.84
p(a)0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.36
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.58
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.23
Treynor index (mean / b)0.03
Jensen alpha (a)-0.17
Mean-0.09
SD0.47
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-0.20
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-0.20
df1149
t-0.41
p0.51
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio-1.13
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0.74
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.13
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0.74
Sortino ratio-0.25
Upside Potential Ratio2.07
Upside part of mean0.76
Downside part of mean-0.85
Upside SD0.29
Downside SD0.37
N nonnegative terms118
N negative terms1032
N of observations1150
Mean of predictor0.37
Mean of criterion-0.09
SD of predictor0.34
SD of criterion0.47
Covariance0.06
r0.36
b (slope, estimate of beta)0.49
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.27
Mean Square Error0.19
DF error1148
t(b)12.89
p(b)0.32
t(a)-1.30
p(a)0.52
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.42
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0.57
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.69
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0.14
Treynor index (mean / b)-0.19
Jensen alpha (a)-0.27
VaR(95%)0.05
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.06
VaR(95%)0.01
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.02
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)0
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)0
df0
t0
p0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation0
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.28
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)0
Mean Square Error0
DF error0
t(b)0
p(b)0
t(a)0
p(a)0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha0
Treynor index (mean / b)0
Jensen alpha (a)0
Mean-0.03
SD0
Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)-9.74841826823373e+15
Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)-9.69206937105203e+15
df130
t-6893172865105920
p1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio0
Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-1.08701574255084e+16
Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation-8513981316595712
Sortino ratio-16.19
Upside Potential Ratio0
Upside part of mean0
Downside part of mean-0.03
Upside SD0
Downside SD0.00
N nonnegative terms0
N negative terms131
N of observations131
Mean of predictor1.20
Mean of criterion-0.03
SD of predictor0.39
SD of criterion0
Covariance0
r0
b (slope, estimate of beta)0
a (intercept, estimate of alpha)-0.03
Mean Square Error0
DF error129
t(b)0
p(b)0.50
t(a)-6746996337541120
p(a)1
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)0.05
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta0
Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha-0.03
Treynor index (mean / b)1.42439827786035e+32
Jensen alpha (a)-0.03
VaR(95%)0.00
Expected Shortfall on VaR0.00
VaR(95%)0
Expected Shortfall on VaR0

ORDER STATISTICS

Number of observations52
Minimum0.59
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.16
Mean of quarter 10.93
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.06
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low10
Percentage of outliers low0.19
Mean of outliers low0.91
Number of outliers high8
Percentage of outliers high0.15
Mean of outliers high1.09
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-12.65
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.00
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.85
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.08
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.72
Number of observations1150
Minimum0.58
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1.52
Mean of quarter 10.99
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41.01
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low120
Percentage of outliers low0.10
Mean of outliers low0.97
Number of outliers high121
Percentage of outliers high0.11
Mean of outliers high1.03
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0.94
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.00
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0.09
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0.55
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.01
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.04
Number of observations131
Minimum1
Quartile 11
Median1
Quartile 31
Maximum1
Mean of quarter 11
Mean of quarter 21
Mean of quarter 31
Mean of quarter 41
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0

DRAW DOWN STATISTICS

Number of observations3
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.18
Median0.35
Quartile 30.38
Maximum0.41
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.35
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40.41
Inter Quartile Range0.20
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Number of observations12
Minimum0.00
Quartile 10.00
Median0.02
Quartile 30.04
Maximum0.43
Mean of quarter 10.00
Mean of quarter 20.01
Mean of quarter 30.03
Mean of quarter 40.28
Inter Quartile Range0.03
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high2
Percentage of outliers high0.17
Mean of outliers high0.39
Extreme Value Index (moments method)-274.54
VaR(95%) (moments method)0.14
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)-3.09
VaR(95%) (regression method)0.75
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0.75
Number of observations0
Minimum0
Quartile 10
Median0
Quartile 30
Maximum0
Mean of quarter 10
Mean of quarter 20
Mean of quarter 30
Mean of quarter 40
Inter Quartile Range0
Number outliers low0
Percentage of outliers low0
Mean of outliers low0
Number of outliers high0
Percentage of outliers high0
Mean of outliers high0
Extreme Value Index (moments method)0
VaR(95%) (moments method)0
Expected Shortfall (moments method)0
Extreme Value Index (regression method)0
VaR(95%) (regression method)0
Expected Shortfall (regression method)0
Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?-441239456
Max Equity Drawdown (num days)126
Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative0.0%

COMBINED STATISTICS

Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.15
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-0.36
j156mfCOMBRisPar0
j157mfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)-0.06
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)-0.06
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)-0.15
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs-0.23
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal-1.07
j313dfCOMBRisPar0
j314dfCOMBRisPar0
Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)0
Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)0
Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)0
Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs0
Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal0

Trading record

Placed 81 trades in real-life brokerage accounts.

SymbolSideQtyOpenedClosedP/L
AUD/NZD long300Jan 12, 2012Jan 18, 2012($2,089)
GBP/USD short300Dec 23, 2011Dec 28, 2011$4,110
EUR/AUD long300Dec 9, 2011Dec 20, 2011($5,714)
EUR/NZD long300Dec 9, 2011Dec 16, 2011($6,146)
AUD/USD short300Dec 9, 2011Dec 14, 2011$4,599
NZD/USD short300Dec 9, 2011Dec 14, 2011$4,113
USD/CAD long300Dec 9, 2011Dec 14, 2011$2,342
EUR/CAD long300Dec 9, 2011Dec 13, 2011($5,098)
EUR/USD long300Dec 1, 2011Dec 12, 2011($8,550)
EUR/GBP short300Oct 18, 2011Nov 1, 2011$4,454
EUR/JPY short300Oct 18, 2011Oct 27, 2011($51)
AUD/JPY short300Oct 18, 2011Oct 27, 2011($47)
NZD/USD short300Oct 18, 2011Oct 24, 2011($6,755)
AUD/USD short300Oct 18, 2011Oct 23, 2011($7,080)
EUR/CAD long300Sep 15, 2011Sep 18, 2011($4,537)
NZD/USD long300Sep 12, 2011Sep 14, 2011$762
AUD/USD long300Aug 9, 2011Aug 10, 2011($7,554)
NZD/USD long300Aug 9, 2011Aug 10, 2011($7,492)
EUR/CAD long300Aug 3, 2011Aug 7, 2011$7,332
EUR/GBP long300Aug 1, 2011Aug 5, 2011($6,054)
AUD/NZD short300Jul 19, 2011Jul 24, 2011($152)
AUD/USD long300Jul 19, 2011Jul 21, 2011$3,006
EUR/CHF short450Jul 5, 2011Jul 7, 2011$6,391
EUR/CAD long300Jul 4, 2011Jul 6, 2011($3,270)
EUR/CAD long300Jun 17, 2011Jun 28, 2011$2,217
EUR/AUD short300Jun 23, 2011Jun 24, 2011($59)
EUR/GBP long300Jun 17, 2011Jun 23, 2011$1,658
AUD/CAD long300Jun 17, 2011Jun 23, 2011($3,483)
GBP/CHF short300Jun 16, 2011Jun 16, 2011$137
USD/CAD short300Jun 1, 2011Jun 3, 2011($3,858)

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.